Introduction: A comprehensive seismic assessment conducted by the US Geological Survey (USGS) has uncovered significant earthquake risks across the United States. The latest National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) reveals that nearly 75% of the country is in danger of damaging earthquakes. This article breaks down key findings, shedding light on vulnerable areas, potential economic losses, and the advancements in seismic modeling.
I. Alarming Statistics:
- Almost 75% of the US is at risk of damaging earthquakes, exposing hundreds of millions of people to potential threats.
- Major cities, including New York, Washington, and Boston, face an increased risk of significant shakes.
- Famously active seismic regions such as California and Alaska are highlighted, along with heightened risks in areas affected by recent volcanic eruptions, like Hawaii.
II. Risk Hotspots:
- A stretch of the west coast and southern Alaska faces a more than 95% chance of a damaging earthquake in the next century.
- Hotspots around Memphis, Tennessee, and Yellowstone, home to a supervolcano, show a 75% to 95% chance.
III. New Fault Lines Detected:
- Advanced tools and technology enabled scientists to identify over 500 new fault lines, bringing the total to around 1,000.
- The modeling has revealed that 25 states, including Washington, Oregon, Indiana, Arkansas, and South Carolina, are now at moderate to high risk of a major quake in the next century.
IV. Vulnerability of the Atlantic Coastal Corridor:
- The 'Atlantic Coastal corridor,' including New York, faces a higher risk, with a 60% increased likelihood of suffering a damaging quake.
- This corridor, home to nearly nine million people in New York alone, demands increased preparedness measures.
V. USGS Warning and Preparedness:
- The USGS emphasizes that earthquakes cannot be predicted but highlights the importance of investigating faults and past quakes to assess future risks.
- The collaborative effort between federal, state, and local governments, along with the private sector, is acknowledged as a significant achievement for public safety.
VI. Economic Impact:
- The USGS forecasts direct average economic losses of $14.7 billion per year from earthquake damage, underlining the substantial financial impact of seismic events.
USGS Warning: Bay Area Faces 95% Probability of Damaging Earthquake in Next Century
This map of the San Francisco Bay Area shows the probability of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake occurring through 2043 on major active faults. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019)
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Details | |
|---|---|---|
| Concerns about Fault Connections | County planners, geologists, and geophysicists express concern about the connection between the Rodgers Creek Fault and the Hayward Fault. The latter, running under Berkeley, is deemed highly dangerous due to overdue seismic activity beneath densely populated areas. | |
| USGS Evaluation Beyond Faults | The USGS studies extend beyond fault placement, encompassing the characterization of ruptures, seismic waves, and terrain consistency. The agency aims to enhance understanding of earthquake risk based on comprehensive data and analyses. | |
| Impact of Napa Earthquake | The 6.0 magnitude earthquake in Napa in August 2014 heightened awareness among North Bay engineers, planners, and businesses. This seismic event prompted a reevaluation of preparedness strategies and led to increased consciousness in the region. | |
| Seismocon: A Startup Response | Mike Sjoblom's startup, Seismocon, emerged as a response to seismic concerns. The company developed a wall-mounted device that assesses post-earthquake home damage. In 2022, Sjoblom secured a patent for the device, currently undergoing testing from Napa to Detroit. | |
| Seismic Projects in North Bay | The North Bay witnesses various seismic projects as the state updates building codes every three years. These initiatives aim to enhance infrastructure resilience and address the evolving understanding of earthquake risks. | |
| Buena Vista Winery Retrofit | MKM & Associates undertook a year-long seismic retrofit at Buena Vista Winery in Sonoma, particularly focusing on the Champagne Cellars. The 2013 California Preservation Design Award recognized the craftsmanship and seismic strengthening efforts in 2012. | |
| Owner's Commitment to Restoration | The restoration of Buena Vista Winery was a priority for owner Jean Charles Boisset, reflecting a deep belief in the historical significance of the winery. The project gained recognition for its historical preservation and seismic retrofitting. | |
| Infrastructure Upgrade Challenges | John Wanger of Coastland Civil Engineering emphasizes that despite improvements, no amount is perfect. The need for substantial investment in infrastructure upgrades is highlighted, extending beyond buildings to address the staggering financial requirements. | |
| Marin County's Safety Element | In 2023, Marin County updated its safety element as part of the general plan, reviewing hazards ranging from sea-level rise to wildfire threats. Every property in Marin County is recognized as subject to environmental hazards, particularly challenging due to steep terrain. | |
| Codes Exist for Building Stability | Sarah Jones, the county director of community development, emphasizes that building codes exist to ensure structural stability, not to create burdens. The discussion echoes the importance of adhering to codes for resilient and safe constructions. |